What does it mean if it says 40 chance of rain
It is one of the biggest challenges we face in weather communication.
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On a recent tubing trip, I heard a woman lamenting about rain. Before reviewing the basic results, it is instructive to sample a few of the definitions. Meteorologist Troy Kimmel has a detailed discussion of this meaning of PoP online.
How confident is the forecaster precipitation will occur somewhere in their forecast area? This is the percent of the forecast area will receive the precipitation if there is any precipitation.
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PoP Examples Since both variables have a certain slush factor, PoP can have different meanings depending on which variable the forecaster focuses on. Both of these examples give the same value for the chance of precipitation but have different meanings. The second example shows a smaller chance of rain that affects a larger area.
Typically, weather forecasters will offer additional information where you can make your own decisions about possible rainfall. Lackmann: Well, there are a lot of different types of forecasts and a wealth of information available: computer model forecasts, climatology, satellite imagery, radar — so it can vary.
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Most forecasters have a systematic process — moving from large-scale effects to small. What are the average conditions and extremes for the forecast site?
Is there moisture available? They also need to account for local effects — like the sea breeze on the coast that can create afternoon storms — or topographic features such as mountains, which can cause air to rise, triggering clouds and precipitation.
Absurd: What does it mean if it says 40 chance of rain
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Current satellite and radar data factor in as well.
What does it mean if it says 40 chance of rain Video
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