That's the mark of a La Nina winter -- the reverse of weather conditions known as El Nino, when the Pacific's waters are unusually warm along the Northern California coast and colder than usual down south. These extremely unbalanced conditions, Patzert said, exert a powerful influence on the weather system that sends the jet stream out of the North Pacific across North America.

To Patzert, the unstable atmosphere above the ponderous Pacific is like "a ballerina dancing on top of an elephant," and as a result, he said, "we're definitely going through a decade of wild climatic behavior. So during the El Nino winter, for example, the waters off the Northern California coast reached record high temperatures, and offshore fishermen found themselves catching all kinds of tropical creatures, some edible and some not.

Water temperatures and wind patterns in the Pacific Ocean have created the strongest El Nino in a generation. And although heavy rains are not guaranteed, the last two times when conditions were this strong, in the winters of andrainfall totals in the Bay Area and much of the state were double the historic average, triggering massive flooding and mud slides.

The new report still establishes Southern California as the odds-on favorite, but expands the wetter outlook more broadly across the state for the months of January, February and March, which are expected to be the wettest. Scientists at NOAA - the parent agency of the National Weather Service - released maps showing that from Santa Barbara to the Mexican border, there is a 93 percent chance of average or above-average rainfall during those three months.

From San Jose to Santa Barbara, there is an 83 percent chance of average or above-average rainfall, and from Humboldt County to San Jose there is a 73 percent chance of average or above-average precipitation. To get out of the drought we have to have above-normal precipitation. Moderate drought has begun in Central California.

A northern storm track has meant little rain and snow. This is typically California's rainy season. An early fire season could be ahead. Advertisement Storm after storm has swerved away from California, and drought conditions have started to return. For the first time since early December, a small part of the Golden State's central valley and Sierra Nevada have fallen into a moderate drought.

With this week's update from the U. Drought Monitor, more Californians are in a moderate drought than at any time in the last year, in terms of population. A persistent storm track has kept winter storms to the north and east of California since December.

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Northern California Storm Forecast: Rain showers and flash flood warnings - October 21, 2021

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