It remained like that until July when it became positive again. The recent behaviour of the QBO appears to be very unusual because the cycle normally lasts for 28 or 29 months. At the moment it appears the expected to transition to a stronger positive phase has failed.

On balance the latest developments would probably reinforce the likelihood of a milder winter. Coming to the UK this winter? A weak El Nino event is believed to increase the chance of colder weather during the second half of the winter. Most likely if the high-pressure system in the central Atlantic can crawl further up north, blocking the jet stream and creating a more northerly flow into Europe. The airmass temperature forecast below shows North America divided into two parts. Western and central Canada is forecast to be colder than normal, with a high chance of the colder air extending towards the parts of the northern United States and over the Midwest and into the northeast. The Southern United States is forecast to be warmer than normal. Europe also features higher than normal temperatures, but not to a high degree.

Tho a more westerly flow dominant scenario is suggested, the pressure pattern does allow for a break in the flow. Occasional cold flow from northwest Europe is possible down into the mainland. Looking closer at Europe, we see the surface temperatures are mostly above normal. Higher temperature anomalies and milder conditions are more likely towards the eastern regions.

Central and western regions are likely to see occasional cold fronts from the northwest, hence the lower magnitude anomaly. Warmer than normal temperatures are forecast for the southern regions. This is an early forecast, so the neutral temperatures will likely shift to colder, as the forecast consolidates. Precipitation anomaly forecast shows a more normal La Nina type pattern over What will winter be like in 2021 uk and the United States.

We see the mainland United States with wetter conditions in the what will winter be like in 2021 uk parts under the jet stream and drier conditions in the south-central regions. Europe is shown to have more precipitation over the northern regions, where most of the storms would follow. We still see wetter conditions in the Mediterranean. That would mean occasional breaks in the westerly flow and a low-pressure system over southern regions as a result. Over Europe, we see mostly less than normal snowfall. The exceptions are the northern United Kingdom and central Scandinavia. This shows an obvious storm track, due to the positive NAO pressure pattern. Increased snowfall is also suggested on the south Alpine slopes. Over North America, we see a very interesting snowfall forecast. The increased snowfall potential continues over the Midwest and into the northeastern United States.

We can also see a small extension of more snowfall down into the south-central regions. It shows the strong La Nina blocking high-pressure in the Pacific. But the main low-pressure area is centered further west over central Canada. This causes a jet stream extension from North America upwards into Greenland. What will winter be like in 2021 uk means a more northwesterly flow is likely into Europe, as high pressure in the North Atlantic is bending the jet stream upwards into Greenland. Over North America we have the cold pool over western Canada and Alaska, reaching down into the northern United States. The south-central and the eastern United States are forecast to be warmer than normal.

The western half has more neutral to warm anomalies, indicating an increased potential for northerly flow and cold fronts into the region from the northwest. The ocean temperature difference between the La Nina and El Nino can be quite large, up to 10 degrees Celsius in some places. This cold tongue is actually normal, but it is much stronger during a La Nina and much weaker during an El Nino. But what causes these cold and cant my instagram on phases?

There is no simple answer, but we can say that it is a result of the complex dynamics between pressure patterns and winds. The tropical trade winds can usually initiate or stop a certain phase, as they mix the ocean what will winter be like in 2021 uk and alter the ocean currents. To keep it simple, the trade winds are steady, and persistent winds, which blow towards and along the Equator in both Hemispheres. The image below from Weather. Trade winds are in yellow and red, depending on the Hemisphere.

When these easterly winds get stronger, they can actually start changing the ocean surface currents, and they can start pushing the water from east to west. This moves warm surface waters towards the west, replacing them with the cooler waters from below the surface. The image below shows the latest ocean surface currents in the ENSO regions. We can see strong easterly currents, which are pushing the water towards the west, and cooling the ocean surface.

Also notice the nicely seen Gulf Stream, running from the Gulf of Mexico towards Florida, continuing towards the northeast, up the east coast of the United States. But the secret is not just in the winds themselves, as they are being driven by pressure changes. The image below shows the location of the two pressure zones. This corresponds to La Nina conditions. But during an El Nino, we see lower pressure in the eastern Pacific and over Tahiti, and higher over Darwin, Australia. This produces a negative SOI value. The SOI tells us what the pressure pattern looks like in the tropical Pacific, which then affects the trade winds, warming or cooling the ENSO regions. We have the day and day average SOI values on the image below, which show the increasing positive values and confirming the new development of the La Nina.

We can see this pressure change in the trade winds if we look at zonal west-east winds over time. The next image below shows the what will winter be like in 2021 uk movement of winds over the equator over time. Positive zonal wind anomaly red colors mean weak easterly winds or even westerly winds.

A negative zonal wind anomaly blue colors indicates stronger than normal easterly winds. We can obviously see for the next two weeks, there will be stronger than normal easterly trade winds present over the ENSO regions. That will support what will winter be like in 2021 uk cooling across the central ENSO regions. Forecast Winter Whopper?

But in a sense, March will be a microcosm of the entire winter. From start to finish, the month will be full of stretches of uneventful weather, but when it turns stormy, the precipitation will come in big doses. To get a sense of how this winter might look, we asked six coronavirus experts for their predictions. The general consensus?

Uncertainty, and worry. Will cases rise?

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