But experts are warning that the path Sweden took came at a high price: Sweden's death toll was 11 times that of neighboring Norway, and the current drop in fatalities is on a par with Haiti or Pakistan, countries that are struggling to control outbreaks. Get a daily selection of our top stories based on your reading preferences. Loading Something is loading. By all accounts, Sweden's high rate of coronavirus deaths was evidence that the country had made a horrendous error. Sweden — which did not impose a strict lockdown — suffered deaths per million of its population, compared to just in neighboring Denmark. The Swedish death toll has been roughly 11 times worse than Norway's, on a per capita basis.

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Yet coronavirus deaths in Sweden have fallen dramatically in recent days, and are now approaching zero. Between June 30 and July 6, Sweden recorded fewer than five deaths per day on all days but one. The decline in newly diagnosed cases has been even more dramatic. Today, just two weeks later, only one-sixth of that number are testing positive on a daily basis. On paper, Sweden suddenly looks like a stunning — albeit late-running — success. But experts are warning that their recent spell of good news does not mean the country's no-lockdown plan was successful, or that other countries should follow its path.

The rate of new cases in Sweden has declined dramatically over the last two weeks. However, the Swedish healthcare system received a lower score, questioning if it was sufficient and robust enough to treat the sick how many current covid cases in sweden protect health workers.

Daily confirmed new cases (7-day moving average)

They concluded that Sweden was generally well prepared, with pandemic plans on both national and regional level, but that the health-care system would be the weak link. They noted that Swedish hospitals were already under heavy burden, and would not have the capacity to treat everyone who become sick, even when alternative facilities like schools and sports centres were used as hospitals. They also pointed out that issues concerning prioritising, including triagewould become central during the crisis, and that they believed this subject needed to be addressed.

The total number of ICU beds in Swedish hospitals was Public health bodies may occasionally revise their case numbers up or down. Case rate by age only available for England. The case rate chart shows how many people have tested positive each day for everypeople in that area.

The dark blue line shows the average daily rate over the past seven days. This average helps to show whether cases are rising or falling. The case rate by age chart shows how many people have tested positive in how many current covid cases in sweden age group perpeople. Steeper rises in older age groups are of more concern because older people are more likely to be badly affected by the virus and are more likely to need hospital care. The case rate by age shows a rate. This means the values for the two age groups cannot be added together to get the overall case rate in each area. Source: UK public health bodies - updated weekdays. Full model details and assumptions are given in Supplementary Information Section S2. Figure 3 shows the counterfactual daily infection incidence profiles, together with the original estimates for each country.

Select the countries for all the graphs

Figure 4 shows counterfactual daily deaths for each country. For clarity, credible intervals are not shown, see Figure S3 for uncertainty. Plots show y-axis on the same scale to highlight differences between scenarios. Full size image Figure 4 As per How many current covid cases in sweden. Observed deaths are shown as blue bars. Full size image The UK experienced the highest per-capita mortality Table 1followed closely by Sweden, with Denmark considerably lower.

The UK also experienced the highest total number of deaths Fig. We estimate that if Denmark had adopted Swedish policies, and introduced them at the same stage of its epidemic, mortality would have been between three and four Table 1 times higher, and thus Denmark would have experienced similar per-capita mortality to Sweden. If Denmark followed UK policies, our relative approach estimates that mortality would not have been markedly different, although our absolute approach implies that mortality would have been more than twice that observed 1. If Sweden had adopted Danish policies, both the absolute and relative approaches imply that there would have been approximately one fifth as many deaths. Sweden adopting UK policies would have resulted in a two- to four- fold reduction in mortality Table 1.

Had the UK adopted Swedish policies, deaths would have increased deaths by a factor of between 1. The UK adopting Danish policies would have reduced deaths by three fold with the absolute approach, but would have made little difference according to the relative approach Table 1although there is considerable uncertainty in the latter. Full size table Two predominant factors explain the differences between the observed data how many current covid cases in sweden the counterfactual scenarios: the timing of interventions and their effectiveness, i. Rapid epidemic growth in all three countries in March ensured that small changes in either factor can have disproportionately large effects on total mortality. However, with an epidemic doubling time of 3—4 days 8a 3-day difference in the introduction of measures can lead to twofold differences in mortality.

The converse is true applying UK policies to Sweden. Discussion Denmark, Sweden and the UK all managed to suppress the first wave of their respective epidemics.

However, the timing and effectiveness of interventions varied substantially between those countries. The counterfactuals therefore demonstrate that small changes in the timing or effectiveness how many current covid cases in sweden intervention policies can lead to large changes in the resulting cumulative death toll, especially in the context of the rapid exponential growth initially seen in the UK, Sweden and Denmark.

This result reinforces earlier work demonstrating that minimising COVID mortality in the face of exponentially growing case numbers requires early and effective interventions 910

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How many tests are performed each day?

Why is data on testing important? All we know is the infection status of those who have been tested. All those who have a lab-confirmed infection are counted as confirmed cases. This means that the counts of confirmed cases depend on how much a country actually tests.

On the charts on this page, which show new cases per day, a flattened curve will show a downward trend in the number of daily new cases.

This website is a resource to help advance the understanding of the virus, inform the public, and brief policymakers in order to guide a response, improve care, and save lives.

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